Os determinantes institucionais do comércio mundial bilateral e por classificação de intensidade tecnológica de produtos, nos anos 2000 a 2016 : uma aplicação do modelo gravitacional

Abstract

He thesis aims to analyze the institutional quality indicators of the impact on the trade flow of 224 countries, as well as total bilateral trade by groups of products classified by the technological intensity in the years 2000 to 2016. The research was developed based on the New Institutional Economy – NIE of bilateral trade and the concepts of economic freedom, complex goods, and technological content. The methodology uses the gravitational equation model, relating the values of total trade and the disaggregated value in sectors classified by the technological intensity of the OECD with GDP, population, the distance between countries, and the attributes of institutional quality, governance, and economic freedom. The results show a greater positive impact of the GDP value on the total volume of bilateral trade in the importing country than in the exporting one. For the volume of trade disaggregated by the classification of products by technological intensity, the greatest impact of GDP was on the increase in imports of low-tech products and in the exports, that is, there was an increase in trade in the high-tech sector. There was also an increase in bilateral trade between countries when better indices of economic freedom were identified, being in exports the improvement of the indicators of international trade freedom, labor, property rights, and reduction in exports, if there is a higher index of the tax burden and financial freedom. The improvement in the levels of economic freedom for countries, had a positive impact on the volume of bilateral trade, especially for products classified as Medium-Low, Medium-High, and High-Technological Intensity due to the quality of institutions for bilateral trade. What stands out in the trade in primary products is the complexity of regulations involved and the characteristic of hybrid governance. In view of the specificity of the assets involved in products classified as technological intensity, sectors with characteristics similar to those described in the governance systems conceived by the Theory of the New Institutional Economy were obtained.