Impactos regionais assimétricos das políticas monetária e cambial no Brasil : uma abordagem com o método VAR

Abstract

This dissertation present a discussion on exchange rate and monetary policies and their potential asymmetric effects in regional terms for Brazil. The main focus is to examine how regional economies are affected by variations in the level of exchange rates and interest rates, and in particular, something that previous studies do not point: what is the impact of regional variations in the exchange rate? And deepening the study, how long regional economies are affected? What is the intensity and impact of these effects? For this, the dissertation was divided into four chapters, besides the introduction. In chapter two was discussed the theoretical background, with the presentation of analyzes that seek to explain the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic policies on the productive structures and sites on the different regions of a country or region, besides the characterization of regional economies studied. The third chapter presents the methodological strategy, modeling Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) used in the study and the procedures followed to reach the results. Chapter four presents the results of work in the estimation of the model, the analysis of impulse-response functions and the dynamic effects of monetary and exchange rate shocks on the study variables. Chapter five presents the conclusions of the study that indicates the confirmation that there are asymmetries in the responses of the Brazilian states facing common macroeconomic shocks, since regionally differentiated impacts were found in the sample used, showing that structural features as productive structure and economic relationship between regional economies are of paramount importance to explain the different levels of impacts, with very large differences in the intensity and staging of responses.