Um novo experimento para os efeitos dos instrumentos fiscais na economia brasileira : uma análise de equilíbrio geral computável

Abstract

This study reproduces, quantitatively, two categories of fiscal policy, expansionary and contractionary, and its two instruments of execution, expenditure and taxes, based on a Computable General Equilibrium model, ORANI-G, adapted to the Brazilian Input-Output Table of 2015, to evaluate the effects of different fiscal policies in a national economy. The aim of this study is to analyze the results obtained in light of selected fiscal literature of the last three decades. Consequently, in this experiment, a new position is established regarding the relationship between fiscal policies and economic growth. The macroeconomic and sectoral results do not testify in favor of expansionary effects of fiscal consolidation, opposing itself to the ideas of Alberto Alesina, enthusiastic of expansionary fiscal adjustments based on government expenditures reduction. The instrument of government expenditure in expansionary and contractionary fiscal policies was shown to have limited economic effect. The effective economic growth was only realized through the instrument of tax reduction. The reduction in taxation has led to considerable increases in macroeconomic and microeconomic variables. The results, therefore, converges to ideas developed by Robert Lucas, enthusiast of the elimination of capital taxes. In the Brazilian economy of 2015, apparently, the fiscal and economic deterioration does not allow that fiscal adjustments have expansionary effects, contrary to whats is observed in the Brazilian economy of 2010.