O impacto da utilização da distância efetiva para estimativas de comércio com o modelo gravitacional : um estudo para o MERCOSUL

Abstract

This papper seeks to verify the impact that the use of a less aggregate distance measure (effective distance) would have on Brazil's bilateral trade estimates with the other MERCOSUR members in the gravity model. As well as providing data that can stimulate the debate on the use of distance measures in the model that consider the calculation of the internal distance of countries, especially in the case of geographically large, adjacent or close countries. A Brazilian international trade database is used from 2002 to 2015. The results show that the use of effective distance significantly impacts the magnitude of the distance and participation coefficients of countries in MERCOSUR in some situations. It is expected that the results and the methodology used in this work will broaden the debate on the bias of the distance estimate for study with the model for MERCOSUR.