Uma análise empírica sobre a importância do comércio internacional para o crescimento dos municípios brasileiros

Abstract

This dissertation analyzes the growth of Brazilian cities between 2000 and 2010 with an emphasis on the participation of international trade in this process. The increased convergence neoclassical model provides the basis for the insertion of international trade. The presence of international trade in the growth equation is motivated by Thirlwall (1979) ideas, which considers that the balance of payments constraint an important aspect in this process. Four international trade proxies are used: Export, Import, Trade Liberalization and Trade Balance of the municipalities. In addition, it is also included as exogenous variable the technological intensity of the municipal foreign trade, divided between high and low technology. The inclusion of international trade to the neoclassical convergence model for a regional analysis of Brazilian municipalities is a contribution of this study. Analysis of economic growth and foreign trade at the regional level to Brazil had not yet been the focus of a research. The method uses the estimation of fixed effects panel data and robustness tests using GMM to control endogeneity. The results demonstrate positive effect of international trade variables on economic growth for the municipalities.