Efeitos da liberalização financeira em variáveis macroeconômicas, no Brasil - 1995-11

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the effects of the financial liberalization in Brazil, between January 1995 and October 2011, on the following macroeconomic variables: growth rate, exchange rate and interest rate. We also investigated the effects of the liberalization on the Bovespa index. Two financial liberalization measures are used: the index of capital controls (CCI) and the index of financial openness (FOI). The result of the Vector Autoregressive model indicates that GDP growth respond negatively to the CCI and FOI. Thus, the liberalization process does not generate greater economic growth. We also suggest that capital controls are endogenous, thus there is a liberalizing movement in times of euphoria and a restrictive one in times of crisis. There are indications that the adoption of capital controls, especially on short-term capital, is an important issue to be faced by policymakers.