@MASTERSTHESIS{ 2018:1883230091, title = {Niche Modeling of the economical important Mahanarva species in South and Central America (HEMIPTERA, CERCOPIDAE)}, year = {2018}, url = "http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/8004", abstract = "Mahanarva fimbriolata, M. spectabilis, M. liturata and M. posticata (Hemiptera: Cercopidae) are known pests for sugarcane and pasture plantations throughout Brazil. By direct sap feeding on the plants they cause phytotoxicity and due to this they decrease the production of plantations. With species distribution modeling it is possible to analyze the possible occurence of the four species in South and Central America. To create species distribution models the algorithms Bioclim, Domain, different generalized linear models and Maxent were used in R. For those models current and future bioclimatic variables as well as elevation and other agricultural variables were used. The future climatic variables are for the years 2050 and 2070 with different repentant concentration pathways. The species show suitable habitats in different countries in South and Central America where sugarcane plantations are abundant. The results of the future climate analyzes do not show differences compared to the current climate analyzes. Overall the Maxent algorithm showed the highest AUC scores and Bioclim the lowest. The variables which contributed the most to the models are elevation, isothermality and different precipitation variables. Climate change and therefore additional insect lifecycles do not have an impact on the insect’s suitable habitats. Overall Maxent is the best algorithm to perform species distribution models with a low number of occurrence points and for climate change analyzes.", publisher = {Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul}, scholl = {Programa de Pós Graduação em Zoologia}, note = {Escola de Ciências} }