Avaliação de impactos econômicos de melhorias em transporte no Rio Grande do Sul : uma abordagem com equilíbrio geral dinâmico

Abstract

The state of Rio Grande do Sul has a matrix of transport highly concentrated in the modal road and lacking in infrastructure. Therefore, the aim of this thesis was to simulate improvements in the state transport matrix from the reduction in transportation costs, based on the knowledge of the infrastructure scenario of the transportation sector and its regional distribution. Two quantitative exercises were performed using general equilibrium models. In the first, an Input Output Matrix was estimated for the state and regionalized by mesoregion, seeking to verify the economic profile of each region and the use of transport modes. In the second exercise, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for the state, called MEGARS, was used as a dynamic CGE model to evaluate fiscal and transport policies. The model was shown with great capacity in the generation of results and also in the preservation of local characteristics of the regional economy. The results of the CGE model regarding policy achievements are in line with the empirical literature on the evaluation of improvements in transportation and also demonstrated that the performance of the main macroeconomic variables of the economy of Rio Grande do Sul has improved significantly due to the net effect of the policy of improvements in transportation. transport. The reduction in transport margins has led to a rise in variables such as real GDP growth, exports, real household consumption, aggregate employment, imports, real wages and other costs of the economy in the period 2012-2025.