Tomada de decisão na gestão de fundos de investimento de renda variável sob a perspectiva naturalística

Abstract

Financial investment decisions are dynamic and complex because they are driven by a number of factors, such as the macroeconomic context, the volatility of the markets and the potential risk of financial loss that impact the value of the assets. In this scenario, investors seek to organize themselves through Investment Funds, require the definition of policies and regulations, and hire experienced Managers who can achieve a better performance for their equity. Given the criticality of this Management, whether due to its effect on investors' equity or through the propagation of mistaken analyzes about the economy, it implies the need to understand better how the decision-making of these Managers is, in fact, structured in real contexts. From this perspective, the objective of this work is to characterize the decisionmaking of the Managers of Investment Funds in Variable Income in the perspective of the naturalistic decision. This research presents a qualitative study with 13 Managers of Investment Funds in Variable Income that manage 31 Investment Funds. In addition to exploratory interviews and analysis of documents of approximation with the field of study, the RPD (recognition-primed decision) model was used based on episodic interviews through the CDM (critical decision method) protocol to elicit knowledge about manager’s critical decision activities, which are the allocation and management of the portfolio. The results suggest that the management of the Investment Fund does not obey the order of the choices and the Manager's expertise and intuition plays a decisive role in the construction of investment strategies. The data also show that there are significant differences between novice managers and experts who impact on performance, being the expert defined by the repertoires of acquired standards and their model of mental simulations practiced. It was also explored that self-regulation and self-efficacy constructs may explain differences in performance over time. Finally, research contributions and limitations are presented.