Construção de um instrumento de avaliação prognóstica para idosos em unidade de terapia intensiva

Abstract

Introduction: With the increase of life expectation of individuals in Brazill and abroad, the number of elder in-patients also increases in hospital units and, consequently, in ICUs, the identification of risk factors being important to keep off compromising the elders who are assited in such units. Methods: The data collection was accomplished between December 2012 and June 2013, using the instrument constructed as from the pilot study and Katz scale. To analyse the data, we employed the SPSS programme, Pearson s chi-square test and Poisson s regression technique which estimates the relative risk, keeping the variables with p &#8804; 0.10 in the instrument and large biological plausibility. The death risk classification was elaborated throughout the use of the quartis analysis, confirmed by the ROC curve. The study was approved by CEP-PUCRS under the number 186.415. Results: Two hundred and five 74.6 mean-aged elders were included, with death rate being 59%. Out of the total sample and according to the scores, 16.6% of the elders had low risk, 23.9% showed moderate risk, 40% high risk and 19.5% of them showed very high risk. The predictive positive value of the instrument was 77% and the negative one was 67.5%, with concordance rate C = 0.78. The instrument cutoff point was &#8805; 9 points. Sensibility was 77.7% and specificity of 66.7%. For those individuals who remained in the ICU for up to 10 days, the survival rate was 69.8%, falling down to 46.6%, 22.4% and 10.7% for those who remained there for 20, 40 and 50 days respectively. Conclusion: The risk factors associated with the major death probability of elders kept in ICU were prior delirium, presence of neoplasies, use of vasoactive drugs, CF > 100beats/min, glycemia < 70mg/dl age band &#8805; 80 years, use of Venturi s mask or of mechanical ventilation as ventilating support, Glasgow comma scale, internment motive and ICU period of permanence > 6 days. The built-up instrument can be useful in the identification of aged individuals with risk factors who need better care, being therefore recommended to be applied in the ICUs.